Musgrave challenges Markey to three debates before November

The first weekend of summer is often reserved for hiking trips, barbecues and afternoons by the pool, not politics. But in this interminable political year—which seems to have the half-life of uranium-238 for how long it’s lasting—politics just won’t be pushed aside, especially in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District.

Last week, incumbent U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, R-Fort Morgan, sent a letter to her Democratic challenger, businesswoman and former Senate aide Betsy Markey, asking for three debates between now and November.

Markey’s campaign manager said they’ll happen—it’s just a matter of where, when and under what rules.

That challenge came as national Democrats heightened their focus on the race, announcing Markey would receive extra funding, and as two national political handicappers said Markey would be a serious contender this fall.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that predicts election outcomes, recently changed its ranking for the 4th from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

And last Thursday, Stu Rothenberg, a nonpartisan political analyst, wrote in a column in Roll Call newspaper that Markey was one of four national challengers to watch this fall.

“The Colorado Democrat is articulate and personable. I’m convinced she’ll run a solid campaign and prove to be an appealing alternative to Musgrave, who clearly has not bonded with a majority in the GOP-leaning district,” he wrote.

The burgeoning debate about the debates highlights how that charged atmosphere is affecting the rhetoric on both sides.

Musgrave’s signed letter requesting the debates contained some jabs at Markey, saying “I support real reform in the earmark (pet project spending) process while you and your party leadership do not.”

In turn, Markey’s campaign manager made fun of Musgrave’s campaign for sending the challenge via fax.

“How very 1983 of them. They could have called or e-mailed,” said Markey’s campaign manager, Anne Caprara.

Musgrave campaign manager Jason Thielman said he looked forward to the debates, one of which is tentatively set to be sponsored by the Greeley Tribune, Windsor Now and Fort Collins Now.

“Since we know who the likely Democrat is going to be, we’ve been very eager to have a venue and an opportunity to contrast our views with hers,” Thielman said.

Caprara said details still need to be hammered out, but the two will debate.

John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University and a state political expert, said he thought the Cook analysis, which came out a couple weeks ago, “may be right, that the tide is shifting.”

He said it’s difficult to gauge how well Musgrave will make out based on the past three elections, but his own “seat of the pants” analysis is that things might be tough for the three-term Republican.

“I just have a sense that things have been getting tighter and tighter for her. Another way of saying it is that her electoral base is getting less and less secure, and as a result I’m kind of inclined to think that at this point it may well be a toss-up,” he said. “I wouldn’t have said that six months ago.”

Thielman countered that the tough climate for Republicans is the reason behind those new analyses. He noted a couple recent special elections in which Democrats beat Republicans in strongly GOP districts, for example.

“I think that is probably a reflection of that, more than it is a reflection of the specifics with regard to the 4th Congressional District. I think it’s a reflection more of the national environment,” he said.

He added that he didn’t think that environment would hurt Musgrave, who has been markedly more visible in the district since eking out a win over former state Rep. Angie Paccione in 2006.

“The challenges we have are the challenges we’ve always had,” Thielman said, adding that wealthy Democratic donors Pat Stryker, from Fort Collins, and Tim Gill would likely again aim their money guns at Musgrave.

“That has been and remains the challenge that we face, more so than any national situation,” he said. “But frankly, because Marilyn is so active on the ground in the district, working with her constituents and working on issues that don’t have anything to do with the national environment ... all politics is local, and that’s the best thing we have going for us, because Marilyn is on the ground working face to face with people harder than ever before.”

He said Musgrave believes she’s always tried to reach out, but he acknowledged her renewed focus on constituent activities was a direct response to financial challenges she faced in 2006.

“Being even more aggressive and trying to create as many public (events) and venues through earned media opportunities rather than paid media opportunities, that has been a more concentrated effort, in recognition of the fact that’s the only way you can overcome people who can write checks,” he said.

Straayer said it remains to be seen whether that will help, adding that the early debate challenge was an interesting continuation of recent constituent-focused events in Fort Collins and Greeley.

“It’s an extension of the (idea) go to a food bank, go to a Wal-Mart, pump some gas for (former 4th District Reform Party candidate) Eric Eidsness and go debate Betsy Markey,” he said. “I think she has done that and she and the people who work for her were correct in noting that her political ice was getting thinner and thinner and she had to change.”

Caprara said that notion, combined with the national environment and her candidate’s own strength, present an opportunity for Democrats.

“It clearly is a Democratic year,” she said, also noting the two special elections—in Louisiana and Mississippi—where Democrats picked up GOP seats.

Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Markey would receive special attention under the party’s “Red to Blue” spending campaign. Caprara said the national environment will help Markey.

“We always see in a presidential year a lot more attention paid to politics, but I also think that Betsy presents a unique challenge to Marilyn Musgrave,” Caprara said. “Her business background, her handle on economic issues, really create a unique environment for her to talk to voters in a way that isn’t Democrat versus Republican.”

She said messages of change, from the 4th district to the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, are resonating with voters.

“That’s what we hear more than anything, that they’re tired of the old style of politics. It’s a message you see echoed all the way up and down the ticket, Betsy Markey, Barack Obama, (Democratic Senate candidate and U.S. Rep.) Mark Udall, they’re all talking about it,” she said.

Straayer said that message may have something to do with the huge turnout for February’s caucuses and the county and state assemblies, which Democrats hope to sustain through this fall.

“If Obama is organized and has offices all over Colorado, that’s going to swell the turnout,” he said. “And the higher the numbers, the better Democrats up and down the line are going to do.”

Thielman said he wouldn’t speak to Democratic fortunes in the West, widely seen as a battleground for the White House, saying his only prediction was that the party wouldn’t be successful in the 4th CD.

“There’s always an ebb and flow in the cycles of politics,” he said.