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U.S. Senate race: trend or tradition?

Recent shifts favor Dems, but seat held long time by GOP

By Lynn Bartels, Rocky Mountain News (Contact)

Published June 10, 2008 at 10:26 a.m.

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Republican Bob Schaffer

Republican Bob Schaffer

Democrat Mark Udall

Democrat Mark Udall

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When it comes to winning the U.S. Senate race, Republican candidate Bob Schaffer has plenty of tradition on his side.

For the past 18 years, the seat has been represented by a former congressman from the 4th District, which includes the eastern plains and a portion of the Front Range. Schaffer, of Fort Collins, served three terms as the 4th District congressman.

"The 4th CD covers such a large geographical area that it gives someone a nice start on the nomination," said former U.S. Sen. Hank Brown, who launched his Senate bid from that congressional district.

In addition, Republicans have held that seat for nearly half a century. The exception is a one-term, six-year blip when Floyd Haskell, a Republican turned Democrat, was elected in the midst of anti- war, Watergate hoopla.

But recent trends bode well for Schaffer's challenger, Democrat Mark Udall, of Eldorado Springs. Colorado Democrats have scored impressive victories in the past two elections despite the Republican voter registration advantage.

The question now is which - tradition or trend - will hold in November.

Udall and the U.S. mood

Udall and Schaffer face off in a race that has national implications for control of the Senate and serves as the bellwether of whether Colorado Republicans have their mojo back.

Schaffer's campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, has run the past three campaigns for this Senate slot, winning all three.

"Democrats think they can win this seat, but it really is a Republican seat," Wadhams said.

Not so fast, said Udall's campaign consultant, Mike Stratton, and Democratic consultant Steve Welchert.

"Give me the trends and Mr. Wadhams can have ancient history," Stratton said. "All the trends are favoring Udall."

Among those trends:

Democrats in 2006 nearly unseated Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave, who now represents the 4th District. This year, Democrats turned out in record numbers for Colorado's precinct caucuses. Nationally, the GOP just lost three special congressional races. And President Bush's approval ratings continue to sink.

Wadhams doesn't discount the nation's mood. "The biggest problem we have in 2008 is the national headwind," he said. "That's the single best thing Udall has going for him."

But Taylor West, Udall's campaign spokeswoman, countered that "a national headwind is the least of Bob Schaffer's problems."

She noted that Udall, a five- term congressman from Colorado's 2nd District, enjoys a reputation of working well with others. He voted against a war that has become increasingly unpopular and has a strong record of backing veterans issues and renewable energy.

But Wadhams said Udall has the same image problem Democrat Josie Heath encountered in 1990 when she ran against Brown in the Senate race.

"She was a Boulder liberal," Wadhams said.

Heath was a former Boulder County commissioner who won the nomination after a bruising and costly primary. Brown was a congressman from the 4th District who ran unopposed for the GOP nomination. He beat her 57 percent to 43 percent, and Wadhams scored his first victory as a campaign manager.

Chain reactions

Brown's decision to run for the Senate set off political dominoes. State Sen. Wayne Allard ran for Brown's seat in Congress, and Schaffer ran for Allard's seat in the state Senate.

Brown served only one term in the Senate. Allard in 1996 ran for Brown's Senate seat and Schaffer ran for Allard's House seat.

Allard was the underdog in his Senate primary and the general election, but he beat Republican Attorney General Gale Norton and then Democrat Tom Strickland. Allard won his rematch with Strickland in 2002.

Wadhams managed both Senate campaigns for Allard, who is retiring at the end of this year.

"The 4th District is a great district to have represented and run from," Wadhams said. "Hank Brown and Wayne Allard demonstrate that."

The vast district includes Colorado State University and the University of Northern Colorado. It's flatland farms and a portion of Rocky Mountain National Park. It's agribusiness and high-tech, rural and urban.

"The 4th District is very emblematic of the rest of the state," Schaffer said.

Schaffer and the 4th

Schaffer honored his term-limits pledge and left Congress in 2002.

He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004 for a seat the Democrats considered theirs. It was held by Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who had switched his party affiliation to Republican in 1995.

Schaffer had the backing of the party faithful but lost the GOP nomination to brewer Pete Coors, in part because Coors' campaign targeted voters who normally ignore the primary.

Coors lost the election to Democrat Ken Salazar, Colorado's attorney general who had ties to rural Colorado.

This time around Schaffer has no primary opponent. Neither does Udall. So, tradition or trend in November?

"My sense is that this race will be very close," said Brown, who recently retired as president of the University of Colorado.

"Nationwide it will be a Democratic year for a lot of reasons, but Colorado will be close. You have two very appealing candidates."

bartels@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5327

Mostly Republican

The open U.S. Senate seat that Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer are vying for has been held by a Republican for 48 of the past 54 years:

*

1997-current

: Wayne Allard, R-Loveland

*

1991-1996

: Hank Brown, R-Greeley

*

1979-1990

: Bill Armstrong, R-Englewood

*

1973-1978

: Floyd Haskell, D-Denver

1955-1972

: Gordon Allot, R-Lamar

Comments

  • June 10, 2008

    11:08 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    nicktaste writes:

    udall represents the PEOPLE of colorado

    instead of the multi billion dollar corporations

    its time to turn this seat blue

  • June 10, 2008

    11:14 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    nicktaste writes:

    ""U.S. gasoline prices will continue to march to record highs this summer before peaking at $4.15 per gallon in August, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.""

    what people should realize is the price of gold has TRIPLED in the past 8 years

    thanks alot bu$h for ruining the economy..

    war = bad for the economy (yes they lied to you)

  • June 10, 2008

    11:16 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    nicktaste writes:

    "war = bad for the economy (yes they lied to you)
    "

    well bad for MOST of us

    the multibillion dollar no contest contracts in iraq are GOOD for the neocons

    they're making a killing , literally

  • June 10, 2008

    11:19 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    nicktaste writes:

    Corporatism and Fascism
    Some equate too much corporate power and influence with fascism. Often they cite a quote claimed to be from Mussolini: "Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power."

  • June 10, 2008

    11:39 a.m.

    Suggest removal

    FlyfishDude52 writes:

    So, apparently, this is the freethought/nicktaste love fest! You people must live in Boulder...

  • June 10, 2008

    12:08 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    dakar writes:

    So how does a windfall tax reduce prices to consumers??? It would only help to increase prices and further reduce domestic production. We need to increase domestic production period. Adding taxes is not going to help the working person either. Dems want to increase taxes and stifle oil drilling. That will not help the situation.

  • June 11, 2008

    12:57 p.m.

    Suggest removal

    sec970 writes:

    Wait--I'm confused....

    How is RAISING costs by raising taxes supposed to lower our prices? We tried windfall profits taxes before--anyone remember gas rationing and miles-long lines at gas stations in the 70s?

    Here is a key observation from Mike Rosen--CORPORATIONS DO NOT PAY TAXES--PERIOD. They simply pass those taxes on to the consumer in the form of increased prices.

    The side of this equation that is "conveniently" ignored by the left is that the oil companies are making record profits ON RECORD SALES. In other words, if you make 10 cents per gallon (more than they make) and you sell 100 gallons on average, if you sell 1000 gallons, suddenly you will make record profits! Are they gouging us? Absolutely not--they are simply selling record amounts at their traditional profit level.

    The ONLY way to lower oil prices is to increase supply or decrease demand. Since demand is worldwide, and we can do nothing about China and/or India, our only hope is to increase supply--meaning DRILLING FOR OUR OWN OIL!!!!!

    OPEC likes their control over us, so they don't want us drilling for our own oil. Even though it make take 5-10 years for new sources to begin producing, our announcement that we are going to pursue our own oil will produce IMMEDIATE effects in world oil markets. The day we announce our willingness to drill, OPEC will increase production in an attempt to reduce the economic incentive for us to drill--causing oil prices to plummet.

    If you like $4+ per gallon gasoline--thank your local environmentalist!

    Freethought/Nicktaste--try actually THINKING for a change rather than just spouting the most recent slogan.....

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