As Beltway politicos and Arlington aristocrats pack their bags for this month's Democratic National Convention in Denver, a shifting political tide will likely stand ready to great them upon arrival. And no, it has nothing to do with sham DNC-sold carbon credits.
Schaffer, UdallFTS Staff Photo
According to Politicker.com, a national Web chain that also hosts a fledgling Denver-based news site, Colorado is a whole lot more competitive than it was at the beginning of the summer. In the "Pindell Report," curiously named after the 20-something Boston-based editor of the site, James Pindell, Pindell writes, "When the country's Democratic political elite gathers in Denver just a week from now they would be better off not asking where the best parties are, but instead where the local phone banks are. There is something happening in Colorado this past month and it is not surprising to see McCain there just this week."
Interesting to note: Politicker describes the "Pindell Report" as "America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast" despite the fact that it was launched just last week. Got to give 'em props for shameless self-promotion. That aside, Pindell's analysis reflects a growing acknowledgment by East Coast pundits that Colorado ain't the blue state that many wish it could be. Take the state's U.S. Senate race, where Republican Bob Schaffer is taking on Democrat Mark Udall. While Udall held a double-digit lead around Memorial Day, he's now neck-and-neck - or up just five or six points (depending on which numbers you believe).
While many insiders had long ago written off Schaffer's campaign, he's fighting back, and with the help of controversial - and effective - political strategist Dick Wadhams at the helm, he has a crafted a message that is drawing not only national attention, but also voter support.
Kimbery A. Strassel of the Wall Street Journal provides a terrific up-to-the-minute analysis of the race, including how national Democrats and liberal Republicans are doing everything they can to help Udall run from his liberal Congressional record. Udall has voted against domestic energy exploration at least 20 times.
Strassel writes: "The Udall bet was that voters would transfer their rage over high gas prices to anyone affiliated with the oil industry. The Democrat spent months hitting Mr. Schaffer for his oil ties, and for his calls for more oil exploration. Mr. Udall's friends in the environmental lobby also came out in force. The League of Conservation Voters joined in with ads, all targeting the man the left had christened 'Big Oil Bob.'
"By June, Mr. Schaffer was down 10 points. Yet this was also about the time gas prices hit $4 a gallon, and congressional Republicans revved up their energy fight. In his first debate with Mr. Udall in mid-July, 'Big Oil Bob' came out swinging -- lambasting his opponent's long opposition to domestic energy growth, and effectively tying that opposition to the high gas prices Coloradans are paying today.
"Mr. Udall has made it easy: In his House tenure he's voted against offshore drilling 15 times, against Alaskan drilling four times, and against expanding refinery capacity six times. 'I throw it right back at them,' Mr. Schaffer tells me. Recent polls have shown up to 70% of Coloradans favor drilling."
While a last minute effort by a coalition of congressional moderates known as the "Gang of Ten" to allow for some domestic drilling has positioned Udall to backtrack on his hardcore, anti-drilling position, his House record is likely to haunt him this November.
When Schaffer was asked by Strassel what he thought of the Gang of Ten's compromise, Schaffer shot back: "I'd call it 40% tax increase, 10% energy and 50% snake oil."
Looks like the Wadhams school of one-liners is having an effect on its latest pupil. With populist energy positions and the spunk that eluded him in the early days of his campaign, Schaffer may just have what it takes to prevail on Election Day.