Face The State Staff Report
A Democrat majority has dominated the Colorado General Assembly since 2004 when a serious union-led cash infusion - coupled with a lively grassroots ground game - helped boot the GOP out of the majority for the first time in 42 years. In 2006, Republicans dug deeper into the minority, losing seats in districts where they held as much as a 13-point voter registration advantage.
With Democrats heading to Denver this August for their national convention, all eyes will be on western states, including Colorado, as models for how the left can win over conservative and moderate voters here. Republicans now say they are ready to fight back and while the money chase will be tough, leaders say they are putting together a ground game that will, in part, exploit a multitude of fee and tax increases passed by the Democrat-led legislature.
After talking with insiders, Face The State has compiled the following list of the top House races to watch. If Republicans are to successfully stage their comeback in the House, they'll need to pick up at least 8 seats this fall.
TOP RACES TO WATCH
House District 27
Though a likely pick-up for Republicans, this seat is not going to be an easy win. Located in Jefferson County, this district's registration shows a nine-point advantage for Republicans, but in 2006 that didn't stop newcomer Democrat Sara Gagliardi from beating incumbent Rep. Bill Crane by a mere 111 votes. Union money plays big here, and Republican John Bodnar will have to work hard to keep up with Democrat spending.
Registration: Republican 37.99%; Democrat 29.8%; Unaffiliated 31.91%
Cash on hand: Bodnar (R) $4,583; Gagliardi (D) $29,145.19
House District 30
Term-limited Rep. Mary Hodge, D-Brighton, has sat comfortably in this seat for 8 years. This leaning-Republican district in Adams County has a Democrat primary between Dave Rose and Mark Nicastle. The Republican, Kevin Priola has a slight advantage because of his name ID in the community as the proprietor of the eponymous Priola Greenhouses. Though Democrats have a slight registration advantage, all the new development in the area seems to be trending Republican. The combination of a Democrat primary and the well known Priola name should make for a competitive race.
House District 31
Rep. Judy Solano, D-Brighton, won this seat in 2004 and has be able to hold onto it since, but ideologically people in this district lean right and might just favor Republican candidate Holly Hansen, whose husband was just elected mayor of Thornton in 2007. The couple is active in the community and has the name recognition to needed to run a competitive campaign.
House District 33
Rep. Dianne Primavera, D-Broomfield, lost to Bill Berens in 2004 only to come back strong in 2006 and take over the seat. A toss up by the numbers, this district tends to lean Republican. It is predominantly located in Broomfield, which is represented by Sen. Shawn Mitchell, a solid conservative, in the Senate. HD 33 is another example of a seat that should be Republican and was just lost during a bad year. This seat should be a likely pick-up for Republican Nick Kliebenstein, a fiscal conservative who has been endorsed by Mitchell.
House District 37
Insiders suspect that Democrats will be heavily targeting this predominantly Republican district because of a close race in 2006, when incumbent Rep. Spencer Swalm, R-Littleton, won by less than 800 votes. Democrat challenger Diana Holland will have to play catch-up in order to compete with Swalm's impressive campaign coffers.
House District 38
Former Republican Rep. Joe Stengel comfortably held this seat until he was term-limited in 2006. His attempted successor, Republican Matt Dunn, was underfunded and lost an essential public relations battle to Joe Rice, a popular Desert Storm vet who benefited by extremely favorable media coverage. Rice now faces Republican Dave Kerber, Greenwood Village city councilman, a candidate hoping to learn from the last election’s mistakes; he leads Rice nearly 2-to-1 in the fundraising chase.
House District 39
Incumbent Rep. David Balmer, R-Centennial, is the House Republicans' money-man. This guy is a fundraising machine, as demonstrated by his impressive $97,915.93 cash on hand. He first ran in 2004 and replaced Nancy Spence, who moved up to the Senate. Mollie Cullom is the same candidate who ran against Balmer in 2006, and she is back for more.
House District 50
Incumbent Rep. "Free Ride" Jim Riesberg was elected in 2004 and has become well known for his liberal ideology and advocating to raise his own property taxes. In 2006 former Sen. Dave Owen went up against Riesberg, but Owen's eight years of experience were not enough to claim victory. This Greeley district appears to be in a transitional phase and will be decided by unaffiliated voters, who make up the vast majority of HD 50's electorate. Republican Scott Helman has stepped up to challenge Riesberg.
House District 52
This race is personal. Rep. John Kefalas, D-Fort Collins, unsuccessfully ran against former Rep. Bob McCluskey for this seat in 2004 but came back to beat him in 2006. This is a true toss-up seat, and McCluskey is back to reclaim what was once his. Located in east Fort Collins, this district has some pretty conservative roots, which should give McCluskey an advantage. But the Senate seat is held by Sen. Bob Bacon, D-Fort Collins, and if recent history is any indicator, unions will dump a lot of money into this race. Insiders now say that Republicans — angered by a recent Supreme Court decision concerning union coordination will now make the House and Senate districts here a top funding priority.
House District 55
This is a strong – let us emphasize strong – Republican district that is ironically held by Democrat and Chairman of the Joint Budget Committee Bernie Buescher, who is rumored to be the next speaker of the House. He was first elected in 2004, with a dirty Republican primary giving him a strong edge that year. Buescher has been fundraising like crazy and has more than five times as much cash on hand as his opponent. Voters of this Grand Junction-centered district should keep an eye out for Republican challenger and small business owner Laura Bradford, whose moderate ideology just might be able to overcome Buescher's funds and popularity.
House District 56
Unaffiliated voters will make the difference here. In 2006, then-Rep. Dan Gibbs, D-Sivlerthorne, beat the colorful incumbent Rep. Ken Chlouber. After former Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald quit to run for Congress in the 2nd congressional district, Gibbs was appointed by a vacancy committee to take her seat. Rep. Christine Scanlan, D-Dillion, was then appointed by a vacancy committee to take over in the house and has not yet had to defend this seat. Ali Hasan is the Republican challenger and will make this a very fun race to watch. He is a young, non-traditional candidate with near unlimited personal financial resources.
House District 62
Onlookers were shocked after this year’s HD 62 Democrat assembly left incumbent Rep. Rafael Gallegos, D-Antonito, off the ballot for lack of support. He now has until May 29 to petition on but will need to gather 1,000 signatures in order to do so. Insiders doubt that Gallegos can pull it off, leaving Dr. Rocky White as the only Democrat candidate on the ballot. With the incumbent ousted, this leaves room for Republicans Marcy Freeburg and Randy Jackson to gain ground, especially against the ultra-liberal, pony-tailed Dr. White.
House District 64
This district falls in Republican territory, and is represented by Sen. Ken Kester, R-Las Animas, in the Senate. Incumbent Rep. Wes McKinley is a well-liked Democrat, appealing to voters in large part because of his outspoken commitment to property rights. Republican Ken Torres will have to have to overcome his opponent's notoriety (McKinley was once featured on Dateline for his work as foreman of a federal grand jury convened to investigate a government cover up at Rocky Flats), in order to seal up a win in this district.
PRIMARIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON
House District 6
This strong Democrat district is home to the term-limited Speaker of the House, Andrew Romanoff, D-Denver. Democrats Lois Court, Josh Hanfling, Liz Adams and Tom Russell have all thrown their hat in the ring to replace Romanoff, with Adams winning the top spot on the ballot with 54% of the vote at the district assembly. Ironically, the Republican primary in HD 6 is just as heated as the Dems (if not more so). Republican Joshua Sharf, a leader in the GOP's growing Jewish community, has seen his columns run in local newspapers and even made an appearance on the Mike Rosen Show as he attempts to keep primary challenger Rima Sinclair off the ballot. According to Sharf, Sinclair is an avowed enemy of Israel who knows nothing about the Republican platform. While Sharf would be a credible and competitive district in almost every other state legislative district, he'll have a tough time even if he takes out Sinclair. The Dems' 16 point advantage would give Sharf (or Sinclair) the upset of the year.
House District 15
This solid Republican district has a love-hate relationship with current Rep. Doug Bruce, R-Colorado Springs. As the author of the state's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, Bruce will always have a special place in the hearts of hard working Coloradoans. He was appointed to replace for then-Rep. Bill Cadman, who took over for retiring Sen. Ron May. Bruce started the 2008 session on a bad note when he postponed his swearing-in to be eligible to serve four full terms in office. During his first week in the House, he garnered national news after kicking (err, "tapping") a photographer during a morning House prayer. The controversies continued, with Bruce most recently causing an uproar by referring to migrant workers as “illiterate peasants” and being accused of sexual harassment. With a growing number of Republicans tired of the embarrassment, Bruce now faces a strong primary opponent Mark Waller, a Republican with 15 years of military service and strong conservative values.
House District 57
With Rep. Al White, R-Hayden, term-limited and planning to run for the Senate, multiple Republicans have stepped up to take his seat. This is a safe Republican district with two candidates, Randy Baumgardner and Daniel Korkowski, currently vying to take over for White. It is rumored that even more Republican candidates might become involved. In the meantime, Democrat Todd Hagenbuch, a forth generation rancher with a well known family, has a chance to gain ground.